Did Allen Dulles know the Bay of Pigs invasion would fail?

In response to the trailer for the CIA movie, “The Good Shepherd,” Dan asks:

Did the Soviets and Cubans know the date and time of the invasion in advance? If yes, is it also true Allen Dulles knew the mission was compromised and went ahead regardless?

Answer: The Cubans knew the invasion was coming but they did not know the date and time. There was no high-level leak, as the movie implies. And, no, Allen Dulles did not know the Bay of Pigs invasion was going to fail.

The Cubans knew the CIA was coming because they paid attention. Che Guevara had lived in Guatemala City in 1954. He knew what a CIA psychological warfare operation looked like. He and Castro did not repeat the mistakes that doomed Guatemalan President Jacobo Arbenz.

The Bay of Pigs invasion was not compromised by some spy. It was compromised by Cuban realities. The CIA underestimated Castro, the appeal of Cuban nationalism, and the skills of the Revolutionary Armed Forces, which had battlefield experience from the rebellion against Batista.

Dulles was more complacent than cynical (not that he wasn’t a cynical man). He simply assumed JFK would do what Eisenhower did in1954: authorize  U.S. air strikes if/when the coup plotters got in trouble.

JFK wasn’t interested.



From a 5-Star Amazon review of Jefferson Morley’s CIA and JFK: The Secret Assassination Files,

“Can’t imagine a more meticulous take down of the CIA’s decades-long subterfuge surrounding the assassination.”

Jefferson Morley’s new ebook, CIA and JFK: The Secret Assassination Files, available on Amazon, provides the fullest account of the role of CIA operations officers in the events leading to the death of JFK, with a guide to what will be declassified in October 2017.





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